Hanoi, 22 April 2025 - The Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV), in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) successfully co-hosted a consultation workshop to present the report “Vietnam’s Financial Markets 2024 and Outlook 2025.”

Now in its fourth edition, the Report provides a comprehensive analysis of Vietnam’s financial market - including the Banking, Securities, and Insurance sectors - while identifying key trends, challenges and growth opportunities. It also puts forward practical recommendations to promote long-term, sustainable development of Vietnam's financial system.

Deputy CEO Tran Phuong gave an opening speech

The Workshop and the Report focused on 3 main topics: (i) insights into Vietnam’s financial market in 2024 and outlook for 2025; (ii) current status and development potential of Vietnam’s corporate bond market; and (iii) policy recommendations from speakers and experts.

Dr. Can Van Luc, BIDV Chief Economist, presented an in-depth economic analysis during the session.

                                                VIETNAM’S FINANCIAL MARKET 2024 AND OUTLOOK 2025

Board members Nguyen Van Thanh, Tran Xuan Hoang, and Deputy CEO Tran Phuong attended the Workshop

In 2024, the global economy observed an uneven recovery. Although inflation pressures eased, prompting central banks to begin a cautious monetary easing cycle, geopolitical tensions and trade disputes continued to pose risks. In response, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) maintained a flexible, accommodative monetary policy to support domestic growth and ensure macroeconomic stability. Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.09%, inflation was kept at 3.63%, and credit expanded by 15.08%. Exchange rates remained volatile but under control. Deposit interest rates rose modestly by 0.2 - 0.3%, while lending rates declined by 0.96%, reflecting the Government and SBV’s monetary stance.

Vietnam’s financial markets remained broadly stable.

Banking sector: Total deposits by credit institutions grew by 10.5%; the pre-tax profit of 27 listed commercial banks rose 17.2% year-on-year. Stock market: The VN-Index increased by 12.11%, supported by improving investor sentiment. Corporate bond market: Experienced a robust recovery with VND 466.5 trillion in new issuances (+27.7% year-on-year). Securities industry: After-tax profit rose 32%., while insurance sector faced mixed results due to the impact of Typhoon Yagi.

However, challenges remain. The financial system saw: rising non-performing loans (NPLs), a declining bad debt coverage ratio, increased capital pressure, and unsustainable profit in the insurance and securities sectors. Cybersecurity risks are also growing, and regulatory frameworks for digital assets, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and sandbox operations remain incomplete.

Outlook for 2025: Opportunities and Headwinds due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies. The international economic outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, particularly amid ongoing U.S. tariff policies. Vietnam is expected to maintain solid growth, but face more headwinds than tailwinds. Under the baseline scenario where the U.S. - Vietnam reciprocal tariff is lowered to 20-25%, Vietnam’s GDP is projected to grow by 6.5-7%. If tariffs fall to 10%, growth may accelerate to 7.5-8%; However, if current tariffs remain at 46%, growth could decelerate to 5.5-6%.

Experts at the workshop

Key projections for Vietnam’s financial market in 2025 include: Credit growth: Expected at 14-15%, constrained by weak demand in some sectors and a sluggish recovery in the real estate market, where high property prices continue to dampen affordability. Exchange rate: The VND is expected to depreciate moderately, with the USD/VND rate rising 3-4%. Banking sector profitability: Forecast to grow by 15-20%, slightly below 2024 levels. Interest rates: Expected to remain low with slight reductions in both deposit and lending rates, in line with the SBV’s policy orientation. Stock market: Poised to benefit from anticipated reclassification to emerging market status and robust corporate earnings. Insurance sector: Expected to rebound as the effects of Typhoon Yagi subside and consumer confidence recovers.

On the regulatory front, 2025 is expected to bring important policy developments: introduction of legal frameworks for digital assets, digital currency, and financial technology sandboxes, the amended Law on Credit Institutions (2024) will replace Resolution 42/2017, addressing long-standing challenges in bad debt resolution. ESG and green finance regulations will continue to evolve, reinforcing Vietnam’s sustainable development agenda.

Despite positive forecasts, Vietnam’s financial market must navigate several structural and external risks: Global trade tensions, particularly U.S. tariff actions, may impact FDI and FII flows; corporate bond maturities remain under pressure, with the real estate sector accounting for 56% of total outstanding bonds; rising NPLs and the interconnectedness of real estate and banking may pose systemic risks; regulatory gaps and digital transformation challenges in areas like cybersecurity and fintech oversight require urgent attention.